On the sustainability of the current account deficits: Evidence from Turkey

Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: University of Essex, İktisat, İngiltere

Tez Danışmanı: Dr. Karim Ait Chabani

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2007

Tezin Dili: Türkçe

Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu

Özet:

The objective of this paper is to examine the long-run tendency of Turkish current account imbalances and to understand its behaviour over the 1992-2009 period. The intertemporal solvency model of Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Husted (1992) is employed which is based on the cointegrating relationship between exports and imports. Conventional time series methods do not consider structural breaks and the fractional dynamics of time series. However, Turkish economy experienced some economic crises and policy changes within this period. Therefore the presence of structural changes in the series is taken into account in this study. The fractional integration method is also applied to analyze the sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey. The empirical evidence revealed that the current account deficit has mostly been unsustainable for the sample period and there has been much more need for policy actions to overcome the structural causes of the persistent deficit.