Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
ECONOMIA POLITICA, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
T & uuml;rkiye's high dependence on energy imports has negative effects on the foreign trade balance and fluctuations in energy prices directly affect the economic structure. As a result of increased hydrocarbon exploration activities in recent years, oil and natural gas reserves have been discovered in the Black Sea and Southeastern Anatolia regions and production has started. This study analyses the economic changes that may occur if T & uuml;rkiye transforms from an energy dependent economy to an energy exporting country. Simulations using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model show that the increase in energy production leads to a loss of output in the agricultural and industry sectors while stimulating the growth of the services sector. The shift of production factors from industry to the services sector can lead to an economic imbalance known as the Dutch disease. This leads to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports, weakening the competitiveness of the industry sector. However, these negative effects can be avoided if energy revenues are allocated to productivity-enhancing investments in the industry sector instead of being channeled directly to public expenditures. According to the simulation results, a productivity increase of at least 16% is required for the industry sector to maintain its export level. The study reveals that channeling energy revenues to long-term strategic investments is critical for the sustainable growth of the T & uuml;rkiye's economy. In particular, investing in innovative sectors such as artificial intelligence, microchip production and renewable energy can strengthen economic stability by increasing global competitiveness.