Dynamics of Türkiye’s Hazelnut Exports: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis


Yılmaz A. M., Niyaz Altınok Ö. C.

Applied Fruit Science, vol.68, pp.1-10, 2026 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)

Abstract

This study pursues a dual objective: First, it evaluates the export competitiveness of Türkiye’s hazelnut sector over the period 1970–2020 by employing the revealed symmetric comparative advantage index. Second, it investigates the long-run and short-run dynamics between hazelnut exports and a set of macroeconomic and sector-specific determinants, including foreign direct investment, hazelnut export prices, hazelnut production, real effective exchange rates, and terms of trade. To this end, an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing framework is adopted, enabling the identification of both equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment mechanisms. The empirical findings confirm the existence of a stable long-run relationship between hazelnut exports and key economic fundamentals, accompanied by significant short-run dynamics. However, foreign direct investment does not exhibit a robust export-enhancing effect, suggesting that capital inflows into the sector have not been effectively translated into increased hazelnut export performance. The results underscore the dominant role of price competitiveness and structural advantages in shaping Türkiye’s hazelnut exports.