Techno-economic and environmental assessment of integrating hydrogen into residential natural gas use in Turkiye
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY, cilt.261, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 261
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.156741
- Dergi Adı: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYDROGEN ENERGY
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Artic & Antarctic Regions, Chemical Abstracts Core, Chimica, Compendex, Environment Index, INSPEC, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Engineering Source (EBSCO)
- Kocaeli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study evaluates integrating a 15 vol% hydrogen blend into Turkiye's residential natural gas network using a novel, dual-layer techno-economic framework combining LHV-based energy models with Monte Carlo simulations to capture seasonal, probabilistic feasibility. By coupling Aspen HYSYS calculations with a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo analysis, the research shifts beyond deterministic models to capture seasonal volatility and policy uncertainty. On a lower-heating-value equivalent basis, the 15% blend reduces annual carbon dioxide emissions by 4.87% (1.77 Mt/year) but increases private energy costs by 216.62 million USD at current prices. The analysis establishes a marginal abatement cost of similar to 122 USD/tCO(2)and a break-even hydrogen price of 0.087-0.090 USD/Stdm(3). Crucially, stochastic results demonstrate that transition-supportive policy regimes increase the probability of net-social-cost feasibility from 4.33% to 79.23%. The findings dynamically link seasonal gas demand, carbon-price thresholds, and structural abatement constraints to optimize deployment strategies in emerging economies like Turkiye.