Performance evaluation of WRF-Chem during Saharan dust outbreaks in the Kocaeli Region, Northwestern Türkiye


Bayraktar O. M., Baltaci H., Celebioglu T., Arslanbaş D.

Atmospheric Pollution Research, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.apr.2025.102840
  • Dergi Adı: Atmospheric Pollution Research
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, INSPEC
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Kocaeli, MERRA-2, PM10, Saharan desert dust, WRF-Chem
  • Kocaeli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The WRF-Chem performance evaluation on industrial cities in Türkiye is vital to ascertain air quality and public health. This study investigates Saharan dust loading impact on Kocaeli using WRF-Chem. The analysis focuses on days with high PM10 values and their associated dust source regions. Model outputs have been compared to in-situ PM10 values and MERRA-2 reanalysis. The background large-scale atmospheric circulation was evaluated using ERA5 reanalysis products. WRF-Chem represents well two Saharan dust originated episodes occurring on April 2, 2022 and April 25, 2024, and Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry (GOCART) module of WRF-Chem represents well dry air intrusions over Türkiye. The low and high-pressure couplet over the eastern Mediterranean promotes the transport of Saharan dust into Kocaeli region of Türkiye. Severe southerly winds reaching up 20 m/s in the lower levels of the atmosphere along the sand/dust line, relatively low humidity, inversion level close to the ground at the Kocaeli are shown as the main atmospheric factors. The model results show good spatial representation when compared to MERRA-2, however, WRF-Chem simulation move slower and on time on April 2, 2022 (3-hr shift), and April 25, 2024, respectively, and produces overestimation PM10 values (282 and 87 μgm−3, respectively). On the other hand, deficiencies in the model's representation of the observed atmospheric circulation and the complex topography of the southeastern Mediterranean explain the larger biases for the October 23, 2023 and March 30, 2024 dust events.