Research Information System
1. International Ankara Scientific Research Congress, Ankara, Turkey, 21 - 22 December 2024, pp.286-293
After the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, the fault lines within the Sea of
Marmara, where the accumulation of stress has increased, have the potential to
generate a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or higher. This area,
referred to as a seismic gap, forms the western part of the North Anatolian
Fault and exhibits a strike-slip faulting characteristic. The North Anatolian
Fault within the Sea of Marmara is divided into several segments and spans a
120 km region. After each significant faulting caused by an earthquake, it also
defines a potential tsunami zone. In this study, the fault parameters of a
potential earthquake in the eastern part of the Marmara Sea were determined,
and a tsunami propagation model was created based on these parameters. The
parameters of the earthquake were chosen in accordance with the tectonics of
the region. The scenario was used to calculate the inundation distances for the
coastal areas of Izmit Gulf. The best fitting length and width of the fault are
40 km and 20 km which are compatible with the possible magnitude (Mw:7.2) of
the scenario earthquake. The strike of fault 77°, dip angle 66° and slip angle
210° was chosen for a strike slip fault with a normal fault component. Initial wave height was calculated by using
static elastic displacement theory, assuming that the fault segment is
identical with the vertical deformation of the sea floor. Tsunami wave
propagation was done with SWAN-JRC code using bathymetry with GEBCO30 grid
structure. The highest and lowest tsunami waves in Izmit Gulf were calculated
as 0.92 m in the west of Darıca and 0.16 m in the east of the Hersek delta,
respectively. It has been calculated that the inundation distances along the
bay where the coastal slope is low are higher than the places where the slope
is high. The calculated tsunami inundation distances along the Gulf range from
4 meters to 270 meters. According to the modeling in the study, the area with
the greatest tsunami inundation is located in a region known as the shipyards
area, which has a flat coastline.
Keywords: Gulf of Izmit, earthquake
scenario, tsunami simulation, inundation