BEYOND OIL PRICES: STRAIT OF HORMUZ DISRUPTIONS AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL VULNERABILITY IN GCC ECONOMIES
MEA 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CONTEMPORARY SCIENTIFIC STUDIES , Makkah, Suudi Arabistan, 27 Haziran - 04 Temmuz 2026, cilt.1, ss.54, (Özet Bildiri)
- Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
- Cilt numarası: 1
- Basıldığı Şehir: Makkah
- Basıldığı Ülke: Suudi Arabistan
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.54
- Kocaeli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study develops a country-level Hormuz Vulnerability Index to assess asymmetric structural exposure to Strait of Hormuz disruptions across Gulf Cooperation Council economies. Although GCC countries are often treated as a relatively homogeneous group of hydrocarbon exporters, their vulnerability to chokepoint disruptions differs substantially according to export-route dependence, hydrocarbon fiscal exposure, bypass capacity, financial risk sensitivity, and tourism–aviation exposure. To capture these differences, the paper constructs two complementary measures: a Physical Hormuz Vulnerability Index, which captures direct energy-route vulnerability through export-route exposure, hydrocarbon revenue dependence, and logistics-route constraints; and a Composite Hormuz Vulnerability Index, which extends the framework by incorporating financial risk sensitivity and tourism–aviation exposure. Using annual index components and monthly panel data for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over 2010–2026, the study combines country-level index rankings, scenario-based multichannel assessment, and panel interaction models. The scenario-based multichannel assessment from the 2026 conflict episode shows broad-based equitymarket losses, sovereign CDS spread widening, CPI pressure through food and transport costs, sharp increases in freight rates and war-risk insurance premia, vessel-traffic disruption, and substantial tourism–aviation losses. The panel results indicate that stock-market responses are not mechanically ordered by physical vulnerability, while composite vulnerability provides more suggestive evidence for sovereign-risk repricing. Overall, the findings provide diagnostic evidence of asymmetric structural vulnerability rather than definitive causal estimates. The study contributes to the literature on energy security, geopolitical risk, and macro-financial vulnerability by showing that a Strait of Hormuz disruption is not merely an oil-price shock, but a multidimensional chokepoint shock transmitted through logistics, insurance, sovereign risk, inflation, tourism, aviation, and investor confidence.